Toronto FC's 1-1 draw with the Montreal Impact yesterday officially put the Crew into the 2014 MLS Cup Playoffs, but the work is just getting started for the Black & Gold. Today's match with the Red Bulls is no longer about mere qualification. The Crew has a gigantic opportunity ahead of it to improve its seeding with a strong performance at Red Bull Arena.
The Crew is assured of finishing in at least fifth place in the Eastern Conference. It cannot catch D.C. United, and by virtue of the wins tiebreaker, it cannot catch New England either. That means the Black & Gold can finish anywhere between third and fifth place.
The relevant portion of the standings currently looks like this:
<strong>Club</strong> |
<strong>GP</strong> |
<strong>W</strong> |
<strong>L</strong> |
<strong>D</strong> |
<strong>Pts.</strong> |
<strong>GD</strong> |
<strong>GF</strong> |
3. Sporting Kansas City |
33 |
14 |
12 |
7 |
<strong>49</strong> |
9 |
48 |
4. New York Red Bulls |
32 |
12 |
9 |
11 |
<strong>47</strong> |
5 |
52 |
5. Columbus Crew |
32 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
<strong>46</strong> |
7 |
47 |
Remaining matches -- CLB (at NY, vs. PHI); NY (vs. CLB, at SKC); SKC (vs. NY)
Tiebreakers (in order) -- Wins, goal differential, goals for
First things first: if the Crew is to improve its seeding, it must avoid a loss against New York today. If the Black & Gold lose at New York, they are locked into the fifth seed because they would not be able to surpass New York on points or Sporting KC on wins in that instance. If the Crew beats New York, it would have excellent odds to finish in fourth place and host a Knockout Round game even with a draw against Philadelphia. If the Crew draws against the Red Bulls, it would have a chance at fourth with a win or a draw over Philadelphia and some help, mostly because it looks like the Crew has a good shot of holding the tiebreaker over New York.
The real prize for the Crew would be a surge to third place and the resultant bye from the Knockout Round. That's very much in sight for the Black & Gold. While it is mathematically possible to come in third with a 1-0-1 finish, the clearest path for the Crew to get to the third seed is to finish 2-0-0 along with a New York win or draw against Sporting KC next weekend.
In summary, if the Crew finishes out 2-0-0, it will clinch at least the fourth seed. To get to third, it needs a little bit of additional help, but Sporting KC losing to Philadelphia yesterday was one monumental step toward that goal.
The immediate goal is clear: avoid a loss at New York today. That would at least make the home finale against the Union important for seeding in some way, especially because it kicks-off a few hours ahead of the SKC-NY match. A Crew victory against the Red Bulls gives it a chance to finish in third place. A Crew draw today gives it a chance to finish in fourth.
